Assembly is projecting a record $10.1 billion in politicaladvertising spend during the 2025–2026 U.S. election cycle–a 15% increase fromthe last midterm cycle in 2022–making it the most expensive midterms inhistory. The estimate come from Assembly’s 2026 Election Outlook Report,released today by the agency’s industry-leading Politics & AdvocacyPractice, which handles planning, activation, and strategy for some of the mosthigh-profile races and issue groups in the country.

The new report underscores that political ad spending will not onlycollide with commercial advertising but fundamentally reshape the mediamarketplace in 2026. Assembly highlights:

• Record-Breaking Spend: With political ad spending projected to surpass$10 billion, brands should prepare for inflated costs and tighter inventory,particularly in battleground markets and peak windows.
• Impact Beyond Politics: Political creative has consistently proven itspower to shape consumer sentiment, often spilling over into brand perceptions.In 2026, this effect is expected to intensify, creating new challenges foradvertisers across categories.
• Urgency for Action: Advertisers must take proactive, concrete steps nowto safeguard campaigns. This includes diversifying channel strategies,stress-testing budgets, and/or reassessing media partners to reduce exposure topolitical disruptions and protect both brand safety and efficiency.

“Political mediastrategists are the original performance marketers: ruthlessly data-driven,hyper-targeted, and under extreme pressure to deliver results,” said TylerGoldberg, Director of Political Strategy at Assembly. “As we head into the 2026midterms, the ad market will feel the ripple effects of billions in political spend flooding the system, more so than we have in previous years.”